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← All toolsModelled equivalents
Race-equivalent range
What can I run?
One recent race gives a modelled range at every distance and shows the gap to your goal without pretending one result can forecast race day.
Race-equivalent range result
That half maps to a marathon band of 3:14:00–3:20:00. This is an equivalence from one performance, not a race forecast. Your 3:14:40 goal sits inside the model band. That makes it a useful planning target, not a promise.
From your coach
“That half maps to a marathon band of 3:14:00–3:20:00. This is an equivalence from one performance, not a race forecast. Your 3:14:40 goal sits inside the model band. That makes it a useful planning target, not a promise.”
JHJason HuntFounder & Head Coach
5K
19:00–20:20
model sensitivity band
10K
40:50–42:20
model sensitivity band
Half
1:33:10
your result
Marathon
3:14:00–3:20:00
model sensitivity band
Your goal
3:14:40
Goal check
Inside band
or more conservative
VDOT pace
4:36/km
pace from the VDOT equivalent
Goal pace
4:37/km
your marathon goal
How the band is made: we compare the Daniels–Gilbert VDOT equivalent with Riegel extrapolations using two common fatigue assumptions, then round the edges. It is a model-sensitivity band, not a confidence interval. Course, weather, fuelling, training volume and marathon durability can move the real result outside it.
Turn a range into a race plan.
A coach adds the context a calculator cannot see: your volume, durability, recovery, course and conditions.
NextPace your race
